The sudden jolt in global oil prices is raising fresh concerns about
African decarbonization efforts. As Western countries have embraced net-zero
carbon targets through investments in renewable energy infrastructure and other
initiatives, Africa has lagged in setting similar goals. While the continent is
blessed with many forms of renewable energy, it is not blessed with capital,
infrastructure, or even political will in many places to kickstart a shift away
from fossil fuels. Will record-high oil and gas prices be the spark that
ignites a transformation?
اضافة اعلان
The short answer is no. A viable renewable energy
transformation is unthinkable for many of the continent’s largest countries
because of the exorbitant cost of shifting to renewables and the government
barriers that keep costs high. Even with record prices, it’s still cheaper for
African leaders to continue relying on fossil fuels than to switch to
renewables.
South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized
country, is a perfect example of the decarbonization challenges. More than 90
percent of South Africa’s energy comes from non-renewable sources, with coal
making up the lion’s share. Countries in North Africa also derive more than 90
percent of their energy from fossil fuels, while those in Central Africa get
more than 80 percent of their energy from renewables. South Africa’s ailing
fleet of coal-burning power plants desperately need repairs, but there is not
enough money to make them — thanks to a decade of corruption and government
mismanagement.
The result has been crippling rolling blackouts that
are forecast to get worse in the coming years. The situation is more remarkable
considering the abundant sunshine and wind power that typifies South Africa’s
climate. Despite this profusion, the South African government has been
reluctant to grant new tenders out of fear that the revenue for the national
electric utility will simply dry up. It’s an unnecessarily complex situation
that speaks to a deeper issue affecting several African countries.
In a published response to a recent Financial Times article
on the barriers to net-zero targets in Africa, Fadhel Kaboub, president of the
Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity, and Mohamed Adow, founder and
director of Power Shift Africa, noted that Africa can’t decarbonize without
decolonizing.
“(Africa) must prioritize the manufacturing of
renewable energy infrastructure, agricultural equipment, water and sanitation
equipment, as well as public health, education, and transportation
infrastructure,” they wrote.
“These are the conditions that allow Africa to
decolonize and decarbonize its economy while avoiding the traps of external
debt, structural deficiencies, fossil fuel-stranded assets, and green
neocolonial ‘development’.”
While the continent has seen explosive urbanization
and historic connectivity rates through greater internet access, there has not
been the emergence of a viable middle class or the growth in African
manufacturing. Robust manufacturing fueled Western growth and has been a key
ingredient in the rise of non-Western economic powers, such as China, India,
and other so-called “Asian tigers”.
Energizing local economies through investment in manufacturing will lay the groundwork for decarbonization because it will provide the capital needed to make the shift.
Five years ago, I wrote that if African countries
want to free themselves from the remnants of colonialism and establish healthy
economies, leaders must get serious about manufacturing. That point is more
valid than ever. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the next generation of
Africans desperately needed jobs. By 2050, Africa’s population will almost
double to 2.5 billion. The tried and tested path to independence is a robust
manufacturing sector that absorbs many workers. Mass production offers workers
pathways from working class to middle class and even to higher management that
no other sector can match.
Manufacturing does not need to be focused on heavy
industries, which require large amounts of fossil fuels. While much of the West
was being vaccinated against COVID-19, many African countries had to wait
because there was no significant vaccine production on the continent. This is
slowly starting to shift, but more can be done.
However, there will be little change without
political commitments within and between African countries. With so many people
wanting to free themselves from the legacy of colonialism, investment in
manufacturing as a path to independence must be made easier. African politicians
need to get out of the way by enacting manufacturing and trade-friendly laws,
ending the corruption that curbs innovation, and building the infrastructure
required to trade with neighbors.
Energizing local economies through investment in
manufacturing will lay the groundwork for decarbonization because it will
provide the capital needed to make the shift. While renewable energy
infrastructure is getting cheaper, it is still expensive for struggling
emerging market countries. A manufacturing boom like what occurred in China or
India would provide the funds to make such a shift possible. The impressive
part of such a transformation is the sheer potential that is locked in African
markets.
Off Cape Town’s southern point, just 10km into the
South Atlantic, lays a virtually limitless amount of wind energy. Several
energy analysts have told me that the wind resources are so vast that if they
were harnessed and translated into energy, South Africa would have in wind what
Saudi Arabia has in oil. Building the offshore infrastructure to capture this
wind is an expensive task that requires international cooperation and the
willingness of the South African government to embrace renewable sources. It
will take some time before those points align, but the potential for a greener
Africa lies waiting just offshore.
The
writer is the former senior editor of Exponential View, a weekly newsletter
about technology and its impact on society. He was also the editor-in-chief of
emerge85, a lab exploring change in emerging markets and its global impact.
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