The number of
Jordanians who expressed desire to emigrate, found by the latest Arab Barometer
poll, stands at 48 percent of the adult population. Among the 18-29 year olds,
63 percent stated that they would leave the country. That is disturbing.
اضافة اعلان
Of people with
higher education, 56 percent expressed the desire to leave. For those who would
like emigrate, the US is the preferred choice, at 35 percent, followed by Saudi
Arabia, 26 percent, and UAE, 13 percent.
Surveys have been
showing a steady, yet fluctuating, increase in the percentage of Jordanians who
have considered leaving the country since 2006, when the desire to emigrate
stood at around 15 percent.
What are the
implications of these facts for public policy formulation and execution?
Economic
implications. The main driver of this propensity to emigrate among Jordanians
is the ill-performing economy. When 93 percent of Jordanians who express their
desire to emigrate attribute it to economic reasons, decision makers have to
pause, think, and come up with innovative solutions.
Today, there is a
great opportunity to address this issue through the investment law that is
being discussed in Parliament. To be specific, Article 3, paragraphs D and E,
of the proposed law mentions good policy principles, such as incentivizing and
encouraging entrepreneurial and innovative projects, and providing a suitable
business environment for small and medium enterprises.
Having them both in the same paragraph, with the same conditions stipulated, blurs clarity and leaves a vast space for the “bureaucratic imagination” that has stifled investments for decades.
However, these
good principles are distorted in Article 10, which should reflect the
motivations, the incentives that help retain investors, especially young ones,
in the country to create jobs for others, and help the economy grow. This
article of the draft states: “… or reducing income tax on economic activities
in less developed areas by not less than 30 percent”; this must be reformulated.
Income tax in these areas must be zero for at least five years, instead of
three.
The current
formulation of this article is vague and will get investors entangled in the
notorious bureaucratic pathways that will cause them to flee.
It is also paramount
to differentiate small and medium enterprises from companies that employ 300
Jordanians at least. These are two different scales. Having them both in the
same paragraph, with the same conditions stipulated, blurs clarity and leaves a
vast space for the “bureaucratic imagination” that has stifled investments for
decades. We should avoid this by all means.
One more proposal
to consider here are the special incentives for young Jordanian entrepreneurs,
which should go above and beyond what is being offered in the current proposed
law. These may include 10 years of tax exemption for the 18–40 year olds,
Jordanians who are self-employed and hire a few others, and conduct their
business in labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and tourism, which are
national priorities. Extra incentives should be given to the youth in rural,
underdeveloped areas.
Despite the many
expressions of disagreement with the American policies in the region, the US is
the preferred destination for people who hope to emigrate. Internally, the
youth (18–29 year olds) are deserting the political process, as the 2016 and
2020 parliamentary elections results clearly show; we must give them economic
incentives to retain them politically. Their levels of frustration cannot be
clearer than when they say “I want to leave this country.” This should not go
unnoticed; it is disturbing and telling.
Fares Braizat is chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions. fares@namasis.com
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