More than three years after Elon Musk
stunned the auto industry with an electric pickup truck that looked more like a
stealth fighter than a way to haul two-by-fours and drywall, Tesla said last
month that it would begin building the vehicle by the end of 2023.
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The announcement has helped fuel a recovery in
Tesla’s share price, but it also revived a debate about whether the
often-delayed pickup, called the Cybertruck, is a work of genius or evidence of
Musk’s hubris.
It would be very unlike Musk, Tesla’s CEO, to
build a pickup that looked anything like the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado,
or Ram 1500 pickup — three of the bestselling vehicles in the US.
With its angular stainless steel body, the
Cybertruck is an attempt to redefine the pickup in the same way that Tesla
upended the conventional wisdom of the auto industry by proving that
battery-powered vehicles could be practical and profitable.
Tesla advertises that a top-of-the-line
version of the truck will be able to tow 14,000 pounds and accelerate faster
than a Porsche 911. The Cybertruck’s doors will open automatically when the
driver approaches.
Tesla advertises that a top-of-the-line version of the truck will be able to tow 14,000 pounds and accelerate faster than a Porsche 911.
The truck is important because it will be
Tesla’s first new passenger vehicle in three years and could help breathe life
into a model lineup that some buyers consider dated. Established carmakers like
Ford, General Motors, and Hyundai have released several new electric models
since the Model Y, Tesla’s most recent car, went on sale in early 2020.
Stainless
steel trucksBut the Cybertruck is so behind schedule that
some auto experts wonder if it has become another example of Musk’s penchant
for pushing technological boundaries to the brink of disaster. In 2018, his
determination to build a highly automated assembly line for the Model 3 sedan
led to “production hell” and nearly killed the company before he opted for more
standard manufacturing practices.
This time it is the use of
stainless steel for the Cybertruck’s body that has industry experts shaking their heads.
Stainless steel resists corrosion and does not
need to be painted, eliminating a cost and the need for environmentally toxic
chemical coatings. But it is also expensive and difficult to shape and weld.
Stainless steel is typically heavier than the steel used in most other cars,
reducing driving range.
There is a reason that only one car company
has ever tried to mass-produce a car with a stainless steel body. That was
DeLorean, which went bankrupt after building fewer than 10,000 cars, which are
best known for their starring role as a time machine in the “Back to the
Future” films.
“Tesla thinks they can solve any problem and don’t have to learn from anyone else… and then they get stuck in a corner.”
“Musk is an example of how the fetishization
of tech startups and their leaders can eventually lead those leaders to making
bad decisions,” Patrick McQuown, executive director of entrepreneurship at
Towson University in Maryland, said in an email. “To me, the insistence on
stainless steel is a manifestation of his belief that he has some unique
understanding of the market, and that the market will buy whatever he offers
because it comes from the mind of Elon Musk.”
Stainless steel costs more than the steel used
in most automobiles because it contains chromium and often other ingredients,
like nickel and molybdenum, that are in high demand. Stainless steel’s tendency
to spring back to its original shape means it cannot be stamped into fenders
and other parts as easily as the more pliable steel used by most automakers. It
also requires special welding techniques.
These challenges probably help explain why
Tesla is two years behind schedule in manufacturing the Cybertruck, which the
company plans to produce at its factory in Austin, Texas.
“Tesla thinks they can solve any problem and
don’t have to learn from anyone else,” said Raj Rajkumar, a professor of
engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, “and then they get stuck in a
corner.”
No more
‘first-mover advantage’Tesla said in an earnings report last month
that it would begin producing the Cybertruck before the end of this year. But
Musk qualified that statement during a conference call with analysts and
investors, saying the company would not begin making the vehicle in large
numbers until 2024. When Tesla unveiled the Cybertruck, it said the vehicle
would go on sale in 2021.
The vehicle “will not be a significant
contributor to the bottom line” in 2023, Musk said, “but it will be next year.”
Tesla’s delays allowed traditional carmakers
to beat it to market with electric pickups, and leave Tesla with nothing to
offer the many Americans who prefer pickup trucks to cars or SUVs.
Buyers are clamoring for electric trucks. Ford
stopped taking reservations for its F-150 Lightning, a battery-powered version
of the bestselling vehicle, because it cannot make the vehicles fast enough.
Rivian, a newer electric vehicle company, is also struggling to produce enough
of its pickup, the R1T, to meet demand.
“This is pushing steel development forward and making people think about steel in a different way, which is good… But there are some open questions.”
GM’s GMC division is selling a Hummer pickup
truck, but in relatively small numbers. And Chevrolet is expected to begin
delivering an electric Silverado this year. Ram has said it will release a
battery-powered 1500 truck next year.
“The first-mover advantage that Tesla could
have leveraged has completely gone away,” Rajkumar said. “It’s a massive
opportunity lost.”
A
stand-out modelTesla has shared virtually no details about
how it will overcome the challenges of working with stainless steel, which
include safety. The steel used in most cars is designed to crumple in a crash,
absorbing energy and protecting passengers. Stainless steel does not crumple as
easily, exposing passengers to more of the force from impact.
The Cybertruck body has none of the curves
typical of most vehicles, instead consisting of flat steel panels that experts
say are probably cut with lasers and then welded together, eliminating the need
for powerful stamping machines.
“Broadly the concept could make sense,” said
Kip Findley, a professor of metallurgical and materials engineering at the
Colorado School of Mines who has done research on advanced steel for vehicles.
“This is pushing steel development forward and making people think about steel
in a different way, which is good.”
“But there are some open questions,” Findley
added. These include how owners will repair damage to the Cybertruck’s body,
which Tesla refers to as an “exoskeleton”. Stainless steel dents less easily
than conventional auto-body steel, but once damaged, it is more difficult to
pound back into shape.
If nothing else, the Cybertruck will stand out
in a crowded field.
Stainless steel car bodies are “certainly
possible”, said Wei Xiong, an associate professor of metallurgy and materials
design at the University of Pittsburgh, noting that computer-aided design
allows researchers to develop high-performance materials much faster than a few
years ago. “I can understand why he wants to go there.”
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